The Buffalo Bills' decision to hire Joe Brady as their new head coach has sparked intriguing discussions about the NFL's hiring trends and the potential pitfalls of internal promotions. This move, made in January, raises questions about the team's strategy and the broader landscape of coaching hires in the league.
One of the most intriguing aspects of this hire is the team's apparent desire to avoid a common NFL trend: the 'Internal Promotion Miss' (IPM). IPMs occur when a team fails to promote a successful coordinator internally, opting instead for an external hire. This can lead to a sense of regret, as evidenced by the Washington Commanders' experience with a coaching staff that included Kyle Shanahan, Sean McVay, Matt LaFleur, Mike McDaniel, and Raheem Morris. These individuals have since become highly successful head coaches, with Shanahan and McVay being the most prominent examples.
The IPM phenomenon is not limited to Shanahan and McVay. Other notable cases include Ben Johnson, Mike Macdonald, Nick Sirianni, and Matt LaFleur, all of whom were promoted to head coaching positions after successful tenures as coordinators. However, not all internal promotions have been successful. Examples of recent internal promotions that have not yielded positive results include Jim Tomsula, Dirk Koetter, Antonio Pierce, Lovie Smith, and Jerod Mayo.
The Bills' decision to hire Brady, a coordinator with the team, seems to be a calculated move to avoid an IPM. This is particularly interesting given the team's previous internal promotion attempts, which may have been less successful. The team's thorough interview process, involving nine candidates, suggests a commitment to finding the right fit. However, the team's president of football operations/general manager, Brandon Beane, acknowledged that the reaction to the hire might have been different if Brady had been a coordinator with a different team, such as the Green Bay Packers.
The IPM trend in the NFL highlights the challenges of internal promotion and the potential risks associated with it. While it may not be the sole path to success, it is a strategy that teams must carefully consider. The Bills' move to hire Brady could be seen as a strategic decision to avoid the pitfalls of IPMs and ensure a more stable and successful coaching tenure.
